The NJTPA Climate Change Working Group is a forum for concerned stakeholders to identify, support, and coordinate efforts in North Jersey to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to prepare the transportation system for the impacts of climate change on the environment. Participants in the NJTPA Climate Change Working Group share ideas, collaborate and provide input to the transportation planning process in northern New Jersey.
This webpage provides information and resources supporting the work of the Climate Change Working Group. Future meetings of the working group will be announced on this page and on the NJTPA calendar. Prior meetings of the Climate Change Working Group can be accessed under the related links section on this page.
Working Group Meeting - December 7
The Climate Change Working Group's fifth meeting was held on December 7, 2009 at the NJTPA offices in Newark.
Joanne Potter, Senior Associate with Cambridge Systematics, was the guest speaker. Ms. Potter presented the findings of a study she managed entitled: Moving Cooler: An Analysis of Transportation Strategies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions, a national multi-sponsor study assessing the effectiveness of transportation activity and travel demand strategies to reduce mobile source greenhouse gas emissions.
Ms. Potter stated that the genesis of the Moving Cooler report grew out of the need for national-level research to examine a variety of strategies to reduce transportation-related greenhouse gases. Ms. Potter pointed out that nearly one-third of the nation’s GHG is from transportation, and about 70% of that is from surface transportation.
A diverse group of stakeholders worked on this report, including federal agencies such as the USEPA, FHWA, APTA, environmental organizations, ULI, and other foundations. The intent of the research project was to fill in a research gap and compare a variety of strategies that reduce surface transportation GHG emissions on a national level, and the cost of implementing the strategy. The project also examined what possible negative impacts could arise from a particular strategy and what equity impacts may exist.
Ms. Potter commented that the stakeholder group started out looking at 25 strategies, but it was later expanded to 50. The comprehensive list of strategies fell within one of nine (9) categories:
- Pricing, tolls, PAYD insurance, VMT fees, carbon/fuel taxes
- Land use and smart growth
- Nonmotorized transportation
- Public transportation improvements
- Regional ride-sharing, commute measures
- Regulatory measures
- Operational/ITS strategies
- Capacity/bottleneck relief
- Freight sector strategies
The study first determined a baseline trend for surface transportation GHG emissions out to 2050 using three assumptions; (1) travel will continue to increase, (2) the cost of gasoline will continue to increase, (3) and that technology will continue to improve fuel efficiency. The study concluded that, assuming the factors mentioned above, overall GHG emissions from the transportation sector will remain at current levels through 2050.
Projections were then made assuming implementation of new CAFÉ standards as proposed by the Obama administration projections for higher and lower gasoline prices, and a technological breakthrough. In all of the above projections, none were sufficient to meet the reductions proposed in the American Clean Energy and Security Act bill as adopted by the House of Representatives in Congress. The study also determined how effective each strategy is at reducing GHG according to the degree of governmental implementation.
The results from the analysis indicated that individual strategies reduce transportation-related GHG from 0.5% to 4% by 2050. Some of the more effective strategies included pricing strategies such as a VMT tax and pay-as-you-drive insurance, and some less effective strategies included Operational and ITS improvements. Ms. Potter concluded that none of these strategies are “silver bullets”, and that multiple strategies would be needed. To that end, the report analyzed the effectiveness of strategies grouped into six bundles;
- Lost Cost strategies
- Near-Term/Early Results Strategies
- Long-Term/Maximum Results
- Land Use/Nonmotorized/Public Transportation
- System and Driver Efficiency
- Facility Pricing
Ms. Potter reported that when the individual strategies are combined into bundles, meaningful reductions in GHG emissions are realized. Ms. Potter said that the maximum implementation of the strategies could yield GHG reductions of up to 24% by the year 2050. Ms. Potter said that these strategies complement the important reductions anticipated from fuel efficiency and technology advancements. Ms. Potter presented results from the System and Driver Efficiency bundle, which includes congestion pricing, transit LOS, HOV lanes, car sharing, reduced speed limits, system operations and management, and multimodal freight strategies. The analysis found an 11-12% reduction in GHG from on-road surface emissions from baseline by 2050, and a cumulative reduction of 7-9% from baseline by 2050.
Ms. Potter also reported on the analysis of the Economy-wide Pricing strategy bundle for it’s effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions. The analysis grouped carbon-pricing, VMT fee, and/or Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) insurance into the Pricing Bundle. Ms. Potter stated that such a bundle has the potential to achieve additional GHG reductions, with additional 17% reduction.
Ms. Potter commented that some strategies are effective in achieving near-term reductions, such as speed limit restrictions, while others contribute to reducing the cumulative GHG challenge in later years. Investments in land use and improved travel options take several years to implement, and thus GHG reductions are not immediately realized. Long-term reduction strategies provide long-lasting reductions. Ms. Potter commented that both types of strategies will be needed.
Ms. Potter commented that GHG reductions presented in the Moving Cooler study were based on the national level. The impacts on any given strategy or strategy bundle may be different a state, regional, or local level. Moreover, while the effect of a strategy on national emissions may be modest, many strategies contribute to other social, economic and environmental goals.
Ms. Potter concluded that additional research is needed to better address the equity implications of some strategies, particularly those related to economy-wide pricing. Ms. Potter also recommended that the analytical framework in the Moving Cooler study be applied to the regional level and a baseline established at the regional level. She stated that regionally tailored strategy bundles will need to be established specific to the development patterns and mobility needs of a particular region. Lastly, Ms. Potter recommended that GHG reduction strategies be evaluated for their effectiveness in reducing GHG.
Ms. Gian-Claudia Sciara, graduate instructor for the Graduate Transportation Planning Studio at the Bloustein School for Planning and Public Policy, summarized the research activities of the Rutgers Graduate Planning Studio of the semester. The class is charged with assisting the Climate Change Working Group and the NJTPA in exploring how climate change can be better integrated into NJTPA practices. The class presented their findings to the Climate Change Working Group, offering a variety of recommendations based on a specific work task.
MPO Best Practices:
The class surveyed the practices of select MPOs to determine the “best practices” that might be used by the NJTPA in its own operations. The class highlighted some of their findings;
- SACOG: SACOG’s use of the software tool, I-PLACE³S (Planning for Community Energy, Environmental, and Economic Sustainability) in their long-range transportation and land use study. Using I-PLACE³S in its planning for the SACOG Blueprint, the MPO has involved a wide range of stakeholders in the planning process, and simulated discussion of potential development outcomes. The program allows users to input community characteristics such as growth predictions and housing trends and see a depiction of the consequences of those characteristics on a computer screen.
- DVRPC: DVRPC’sTransitChek program, an employee benefits program, encourages commuters to use mass transit services and high occupancy vehicles, providing an incentive to reduce single occupant vehicle use and the associated emissions.
In terms of adapting regional transportation systems for anticipated climate changes, the class determined that many MPOs are still in the preliminary stages of taking steps toward addressing climate change adaptation in their long-range plans.
Climate Change in the Project Prioritization Process:
The class evaluated the NJTPA’s project prioritization process, analyzing the integration of climate change concerns into current practices at this basic level of NJTPA responsibility. Their findings and recommendations include;
- Many climate change-related scoring factors are in place, but they are weighted based on their regional importance independent of climate change. Building extra points into these factors remedies that issue.
- There is difficulty in compelling greater data reporting from member jurisdictions and agencies. The class recommends a focus on expanding current programs with a high compliance rate in providing technical information on projects. (i.e. TCAM)
- The class concluded that the most effective way to make sure climate change concerns are reflected in final funding decisions is by making climate change a priority for the PPC. The most effective way to make it a priority is through education.
Greenhouse Gas Inventory for small airports:
The class explored various methods for determining GHG emissions of smaller airports. Their findings and recommendations include;
- Aviation accounts for a growing contribution to GHG output with commercial aviation accounting for approximately 11% of transportation-related GHG emissions
- General aviation accounts for a smaller percentage, but regional and state GHG inventories largely have not addressed them, focusing rather on large commercial airports.
- The class evaluated existing inventory and allocation methodologies and performed an inventory for case study airports in NJTPA region.
- The class determined GHG emissions for three local airports within the NJTPA region; Morristown Municipal, Essex County, Central Jersey Regional
- The class found that calculating GHG emissions from local airports poses a number of difficulties, including; lack of quality operations data and the unavailability of fuel sales data.
- Concluded that local and regional airports constitute a minor yet significant amount of GHG emissions in the aviation sector within the region.
Climate Change in Subregional Corridor Studies:
The class reviewed how climate change concerns are currently reflected in the current guidelines for selecting subregional studies. The class made the following findings;
- Many guidelines could be made more specific and that stated goals of the Subregional Transportation Planning program (STP) are not assigned concrete weights during the evaluation of proposals.
- Although climate change concerns are noted in the STP guidelines, there is little incentive for subregional studies to focus on such concerns, as there is no added scoring benefit to having addressed adaptation or mitigation strategies.
- The class recommends that adaptation and mitigation strategies be allotted a specific amount of points in the STP proposal assessment form in order to ensure that climate change concerns are addressed in subregional studies.
Analyzing Regional Transportation Vulnerabilities:
The class explored the possible impacts of climate change vulnerabilities within the NJTPA region and described the need for why a vulnerability analysis of the region’s transportation infrastructure is needed.
The class also presented the necessary steps and organizational structures that would facilitate incorporation of adaptation measures and vulnerability analyses in planning, including;
- Data management is a key component to completing a vulnerability analysis.
- Protocol development;
- Stakeholder outreach;
- Data collection and management on the location, structural strength and integrity of transportation infrastructure;
- Assessing the exposure of the infrastructure;
- Evaluating the resiliency, redundancy and use of the systems; and
- Creating a scoring system that would aggregate these variables and produce a score for each infrastructure component in the region.
Working Group Meeting - November 2
Sarah Newkirk, the Coastal Programs Director of the Nature Conservancy, was the guest speaker. She discussed the challenges that climate change will pose on coastal communities in Long Island, and presented a new tool that will assist those local decision-makers in addressing those challenges. Ms. Newkirk introduced the concept of adaptation, stressing through good planning and information, our society can adapt to the impacts of climate change. Ms. Newkirk cautioned however, that even if our society did everything possible to mitigate future greenhouse gas emissions, the existing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will exact some impact on our environment, likely through elevated sea levels and increased flooding.
Ms. Newkirk stated that current projections from the IPCC 2007 report anticipate a 16 inch rise in sea levels by the end of this century, provided that greenhouse gas concentrations are quickly stabilized at current levels. Even a 16 inch rise in sea levels presents a serious planning challenge for coastal communities. Ms. Newkirk stated that sea level rise is a threat that is difficult to compel public action due to the slow way it manifests itself and the lack of good information. One reason is that adaptation as an issue has not been part of the climate change discussion. In fact, the media has only recently been reporting about adaptation issues related to climate change since 2007.
The Nature Conservancy launched the Coastal Resilience Project in order to tackle this gap in information and assist in the communication of the threat to local planners. In creating the Coastal Resilience project, The Nature Conservancy determined that information was needed to cover three gaps in knowledge: What is the magnitude of the threat; what is at risk; and what do we do about it. The Nature Conservancy collaborated with the Goddard Institute and NOAA in order to obtain local projections of sea level rise and storm surge in various timeframes and scenarios, combined it with precise elevation data and presented it in a geo-spatial format. The resulting map allows local planners to visualize various rising sea level and storm surge scenarios, overlaid with natural and human resources. The Coastal Resilience project was dependent on high precision LIDAR for the generation of the maps, which limited the analysis to the southern shore of Long Island in Suffolk County.
The mapping tool allows users to visualize a range of projections based upon three different sea level rise scenarios and three different storms for three different time periods; 2020, 2050, and 2080. The tool also allows visitors to visualize which marshes and wetlands are at risk as well as visualize vulnerable infrastructure and community resources, such as hospitals. Demographic data is also provided. Economic losses from a storm event can also be determined from the tool.
The Nature Conservancy uses an Eco-System based approach to adapt to climate change impacts. Basically, an Eco-System based adaptation strategy uses natural systems, or what is referred to as “Green Infrastructure” as an overall strategy to protect human communities. The Coastal Resilience projects looks at key eco-systems vulnerable to climate change, including Coral and Oyster reefs, mangroves, barrier islands, marshes, and wetlands. These systems can serve to naturally mitigate storm damage, and protect human communities. Additional shoreline development and the hardening of the coasts will make adapting to climate change more difficult, and thus government action to address the issue.
The Nature Conservancy also worked with the Pace Law Center to determine what kinds of adaptation responses apply in a particular community given the natural resources present and the infrastructure that needs protection. They put together several categories of actions:
- Amending/Passing legislation. Ms. Newkirk said that the cap-and-trade bills as proposed in congress would provide money for adaptation-related projects and would require states to put together adaptation plans. Ms. Newkirk recommended that New Jersey needs to integrate sea-level rise principles into their Coastal Management Programs. Ms. Newkirk also recommended that congress needs to amend the National Flood Insurance Program and amend the FEMA’s Hazard Management Mitigation Program
- Voluntary Land Acquisition of vulnerable property subject to regular inundation
- Post-storm Redevelopment – strategic purchasing of land after a storm event, and
- Invest in habitat restoration in order to allow
Ms. Newkirk said the next step in the Coastal Resilience Project is to broaden the geographic area to include the north shore of Long Island and New England. The Nature Conservancy is working on developing a pilot program with NOAA to integrate coastal overlay planning and zoning within select municipalities.
Ms. Gian-Claudia Sciara, graduate instructor for the Graduate Transportation Planning Studio at the Bloustein School for Planning and Public Policy, provided an update on the Rutgers Graduate Planning Studio course and their activities. The class is charged with assisting the Climate Change Working Group and the NJTPA in exploring how climate change can be better integrated into NJTPA practices. The class is focusing on five specific work tasks, and student teams have formed around each task. Students presented their update on the following work tasks:
Greenhouse Gas Inventory for small airports:
- Greenhouse Gas emissions from the aviation sector accounts for a growing contribution to GHG output
- Most regional and statewide GHG emission inventories focus only on large commercial airports
- The task’s goal will be to examine the region’s smaller airports, create an inventory methodology for the determination of their GHG emissions.
- Establish an allocation methodology that can be applied to the NJTPA regional GHG emissions inventory project.
Climate Change in the Project Prioritization Process:
- Climate change makes planning for future transportation projects more complicated due to the high risk and uncertainty of its effects
- The class team will identify measures that capture climate change risk, avoid interference with other NJTPA strategic priorities, incorporate the best practices of other MPOs, and incorporate principles behind federal climate change initiatives
- The goal of this task is to develop approaches to integrate climate change concerns into the project prioritization and selection criteria
- The class will review the existing project prioritization process and scoring methodologies
- The team will Report on climate change integration in prioritization at the federal and MPO level
- The class team will propose several alternative scoring criteria that address climate change mitigation and adaptation factors in project evaluation.
Climate Change in Subregional Corridor Studies:
- This task goal is to develop an approach through which NJTPA could incorporate climate change concerns into the subregional corridor studies
- The class team will conduct an analysis of the River Road Corridor Circulation Study, and assess and evaluate the study’s transportation improvements for their greenhouse gas mitigation effects.
- The class team will also review how the subregional transportation studies are chosen, and evaluate how well climate change concerns are included in studies.
- The class team will also develop a methodology to incorporate climate change in the Sub regional Studies Selection Process
MPO Best Practices:
- This task will survey MPO practices to determine the “best practices” that might be used by the NJTPA in its own operations.
- The class team has identified four MPOs worthy of additional study
- Sacramento Area Council of Government (CA)
- Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (DC)
- Puget Sound Regional Council (WA)
- Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (NJ, PA)
- The class team will review these four MPOs for how well they integrate climate change into their practices in the following areas;
- Long range planning
- Integration of land use and transportation
- Technology
- Outreach/public participation
- Congestion reduction, control and management
Analyzing Regional Transportation Vulnerabilities:
- The goal of this task is to create a “To Do” guide on how the NJTPA can conduct a vulnerability analysis
- The class team will identify NJTPA members’ core climate change issues via interviews and questionnaires
- The class team will identify the data required to complete a vulnerability analysis and identify where data gaps currently exist.
- The team solicited feedback from the audience regarding the region’s transportation system, including;
- What transportation systems are most vulnerable? Least vulnerable?
- Does your operational budget include funds for projects addressing climate change issues?* Directly or indirectly
- What data is currently used to assess the vulnerability of your region? What data is needed?
Working Group Meeting – July 30
The Climate Change Working Group's third meeting was held on July 30, 2009 at the NJTPA offices in Newark. Over 40 representatives from Monmouth, Hudson, Bergen, and Morris counties, the City of Newark, NJDOT, NJDEP, NJ Transit, PANY&NJ, Tri-State Transportation Campaign, NJFuture, NJ Turnpike Authority, DVRPC, SJTA, Rutgers, and Somerset County Freeholder Peter Palmer participated in the meeting.
Harrison Rue, a principal at ICF International and former executive director of the Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission and MPO in Charlottesville, VA, was the guest speaker. He discussed the role of Metropolitan Planning Organizations in mitigating the impacts of climate change, and described a variety of climate change action strategies that can be included in
Some of his key points included:
- In order to be effective in implementing climate mitigation actions, a single, cooperative, planning process should be pursued that integrates the plans of long-range MPO plans with the plans from State agencies, including transportation and transit plans.
- Developing fuel-efficient vehicles can only go so far in controlling emissions. By 2050, the number of vehicle miles traveled annually is projected to rise by 160 percent, which would wipe out much of the gains from driving greener cars.
- To make further progress, land development decisions must be made with transportation in mind. Neighborhoods should be designed – and if necessary, retrofitted – so they have convenient public transportation access and are easy to walk.
- Regional Scenario Planning that links land use, transportation, economy and the environment are an important means to evaluating and guiding land use decisions on transportation-related GHG emissions within the region and along major transportation corridors
- Focus on a Multimodal Corridor Strategy that integrates multimodal transportation and land use planning, and tie it to local master plans and State DOT project programming. Use transportation projects to demonstrate state-of-the art practices and policy changes, and target funding towards projects that implement these new policies.
Robert Graff, Manager, Office of Energy and Climate Change Initiatives at the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC), presented the results from the DVRPC's regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory. Aspects of the inventory included:
- Mobile and stationary energy use, waste disposal, agriculture, industrial processes (non-energy), emissions from fuel systems, and land use, land cover change, forestry sources
- Allocated VMT by splitting the trip length between the origin and destination, while highway and airport trips were not allocated
- Allocated 90 percent of total regional GHG emissions to the counties and 84 percent of total emissions to municipalities.
- The GHG emissions for the region were calculated at 90 MMTE using a 2005 baseline.
After Harrison Rue and Robert Graff’s presentations, Mr. Marty Rosen from the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, provided a summary of a new grant program funded by the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. The initiative provides funding for municipal and county governments as well as county colleges for planning or implementation projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Ms. Gian-Claudia Sciara, graduate instructor at the Bloustein School for Planning and Public Policy, lead a discussion regarding the Rutgers Graduate Planning Studio course scheduled to be taught this fall. The Climate Change Working Group will serve as the client, and provided several possible work tasks for the class, including:
Evaluation/Scenario Planning:
- Evaluation of transportation projects in the TIP for GHG emissions and evaluate project’s impacts on the MPOs goals - Quantify Smart Growth Scoring for evaluating TIP projects
- Inventory available data/information MPOs have to evaluate projects. This is needed to inform FHWA efforts. Case studies are needed, use projects on the TIP. What data is missing in order to screen projects?
- NJDOT & VTC have entered into an agreement to analyze GHG footprint of transportation projects. There is a need to develop tools to assist in this effort.
- Evaluate Transportation System based on various scenarios: High gas prices, climate change, food system, etc for how it impacts the transportation network – how resilient is it?
- Apply transport projects to developing LU/transportation models on VMT
Climate Change Adaptation:
- An Adaptation analysis of state roads and bridges would be VERY helpful to NJDOT. There is also a need to provide information to county engineers for the design of infrastructure projects.
- Huge Impacts to Port Activities as a result of climate change. We need to explain how/what the Port works. Need better communication, better guidance on how to act.
Mitigation:
- Design a Framework to evaluate the effectiveness of GHG mitigation actions.
Working Group Meeting – Apr. 30
The Climate Change Working Group's second meeting was held on April 30, 2009 at the NJTPA offices in Newark. Nearly three dozen
representatives from Monmouth, Hudson, and Hunterdon counties, the City of Newark, NJDOT, NJDEP, NJ Transit, PANY&NJ, Tri-State Transportation Campaign, NJFuture, NJ Turnpike Authority, NJIT, Rutgers, Municipal Land Use Center at TCNJ, and others participated.
Dr. Anthony J. Broccoli, Co-Director of the Rutgers Climate and Environmental Change Initiative was the guest speaker. He discussed the impacts of climate change on New Jersey’s infrastructure, and narrated a compelling, animated presentation which demonstrated global warming trends beginning in 1970 and projecting out to 2100 (see link at right).
Some of his key points included:
- Despite ups and downs, Dr. Broccoli pointed to an "unmistakable warming trend," and said the climate has been warming at a rather rapid rate for the last thirty years or so.
- About one-seventh of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from the combustion of fossil fuels for transportation. Generation of electricity is the next largest source of GHG.
- Despite NJ's passage of the Global Warming Response Act, which will cut carbon/GHG emissions between now, 2020, and 2050, we need to develop "an energy strategy that can satisfy our demands while also reducing GHG emissions."
- We need to know what our transportation infrastructure vulnerabilities are, given concerns about rising sea levels and flooding associated with climate change trends. We will need "flexible adaptation plans" that could be developed with new and improved technologies, data collection, and measurement.
After Dr. Broccoli's presentation, a number of productive group discussions took place to identify opportunities for ongoing collaboration, including working cooperatively within the Working Group to improve data collection and modeling, connecting VMT modeling and land use, and sharing analytical tools for quantifying / estimating VMT and GHG reduction; in support of local and statewide efforts to meet regulatory targets, and qualify for grant funding
Working Group Meeting – Feb. 27
The first meeting of the Climate Change Working Group was held on February 27, 2009 in Newark. More than thirty people, representing a wide range of organizations, participated. Each participant had an opportunity to introduce themselves, highlight key issues and provide suggestions for the role of the working group. A summary of issues raised will be posted on this page shortly.
A presentation was made to the working group by Professor Clint Andrews, Rutgers University on alternative fuels. Copies of his slide presentations are listed at right. A few of his key points:
- There is national agreement on the need to use energy more efficiently, for expanding the use of renewal resources for energy and for investing in energy infrastructure. This agreement would advance efforts to address climate change.
- The benefits of biofuels in reducing greenhouse gases depend on the crops used, how they are farmed and how they are refined. Using corn to produce ethanol is among the least beneficial approaches.
- Hydrogen holds the most promise for reducing greenhouse gases and technology is advancing – in particular, the cost-effectiveness of fuel cells. Battery technology for hybrid cars and plug-in electric vehicles is also advancing.
- The nation must take a flexible approach to alternative energy and fuels, encouraging the development of alternative technologies and approaches.
For More Information
Resources and documents relating to climate change are at right. For more information or to participate in the working group, contact Mary Ameen at 973-639-8435 or mameen@njtpa.org.