Delivery package volume in the region more than tripled between 2018 and 2023 to 220 million. This is expected to more than double over the next 25 years, according to the latest forecasts.
Jack Glodek and Chris Lamm of Cambridge Systematics presented the latest installment of the NJTPA’s 2050 Freight Industry Level Forecasts along with an online interactive tool to the Freight Initiatives Committee during its June 16 meeting.
The NJTPA’s 13-county region saw package volume increase by 237 percent, outpacing national growth of 217 percent. There were 220 million packages delivered in 2023 in the NJTPA region, including 10 ZIP codes that eclipsed 2 million:
- Hoboken (Hudson County)
- Downtown Jersey City (Hudson County)
- Wayne (Passaic County)
- Toms River (Ocean County)
- Bloomfield (Essex County)
- Westfield (Union County)
- Teaneck (Bergen County)
- Lakewood (Ocean County)
- Morristown (Morris County)
- Manalapan/Marlboro (Monmouth County)
Projections estimate an additional 150 percent increase by 2050. “This issue isn’t going to go away,” Glodek said. “We all know it’s increasing from our own use of it but more than tripling is nuts and it’s still got room to grow.”
The fourth iteration of the Freight Industry Level Forecasts includes much more robust data. The latest update incorporated e-commerce more holistically, Glodek said. The growth in recent years has been outstanding so it’s good to get a handle on that, he said. The boom in package volume shows how much bigger an area of study this has become in the past five years, he said. Overall, Amazon handles almost 70 percent of package deliveries in the region with the remaining 30 percent split between USPS, FedEx, UPS and other carriers.
More than 400 trucks each day make deliveries from an Amazon facility in Avenel, Middlesex County and more than 300 at a Tinton Falls location while others have 100 to 200 trucks. “It gives you a little bit of an idea where light e-commerce delivery trucks may be coming from,” Glodek said.
Most of the “tours,” or truck trips, go into residential areas and minor roads and streets but the major interstate and state highways provide important connections between the carrier facilities and final delivery locations. These tours often look like “big lollipops:” Trucks start from an e-commerce facility, get on a highway like an interstate until they reach their neighborhood destination. Then they exit the highway and make a big loop around a couple of neighborhoods before getting back on the highway to return to the distribution center.
Online Dashboard Tool
This update includes an online dashboard tool with Regional Profiles and Commodity Profiles. Users can use the Regional Profiles to isolate specific subregions and see unique freight challenges and strengths for each area or isolate one of the 11 commodity bundles to see their freight-related characteristics.
A recording of the FIC meeting and presentation is available on the NJTPA YouTube channel. The Regional and Commodity Profiles are available on the NJTPA website. As is the Final Report for the 2050 Freight Industry Level Forecasts Update.