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Population/Jobs Model

Demographic and Employment Forecast Model (DEFM)

To help the NJTPA understand where people and businesses will likely locate in the future and how those choices will impact the transportation system, the agency maintains and applies a Demographic and Employment Forecast Model (DEFM). This spreadsheet-based model incorporates factors affecting those regional development patterns. The model was originally developed in 2004, enhanced in 2011, and is regularly updated to support forecasting efforts.

The DEFM draws from regional and county level forecasts of employment, population and households produced through regional econometric modeling and allocates them to more localized municipality and traffic analysis zone (TAZ) levels.

The DEFM allocates based on available data such as:

  • land use (residential, commercial, industrial and vacant land)

  • composite zoning estimates for density capacity and constraints

  • highway and transit accessibility

  • historical growth

  • anticipated development projects

Population, household, and employment forecasts are key planning assumptions incorporated in NJTPA and partner agency planning efforts. Before being finalized, forecasts are reviewed by the NJTPA and partners and adjustments are made to incorporate local knowledge. 


Forecast Documentation

Updated NJTPA Demographic and Employment Forecasting (DEFM) User Guide (06/2011) PDF 3.1 MB

For further information, contact Eugene McGuinness at (973) 639-8430 or EMcGuinness​